Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 4.244898 4.645023 5.090858 5.629627 6.270273 7.017257 7.968890
2025-01-19 3.589533 4.077420 4.657849 5.414677 6.400371 7.680044 9.541996
2025-01-26 3.321293 3.876704 4.570550 5.530918 6.880416 8.810109 12.013349
2025-02-02 3.178633 3.796122 4.600590 5.775274 7.548804 10.345732 15.728128
2025-02-09 3.034974 3.690013 4.572362 5.918863 8.081982 11.816442 20.183464
2025-02-16 2.851541 3.509068 4.415177 5.841403 8.238641 12.676480 23.995876
2025-02-23 2.704024 3.362861 4.289246 5.788723 8.417568 13.627809 28.905308
2025-03-02 2.573280 3.228900 4.166699 5.721908 8.552901 14.532984 34.782207
2025-03-09 2.459391 3.110268 4.055527 5.657728 8.677347 15.460528 42.263784
2025-03-16 2.370689 3.021707 3.981764 5.645893 8.898812 16.717095 54.143000
2025-03-23 2.316863 2.980240 3.976291 5.749680 9.375422 18.889462 80.130024
2025-03-30 2.223235 2.873725 3.859864 5.641292 9.375517 19.689033 101.339727
2025-04-06 2.129499 2.764108 3.734216 5.509079 9.312982 20.325474 129.170331
2025-04-13 2.026810 2.636526 3.572620 5.296665 9.035287 20.139020 146.011624
2025-04-20 1.994723 2.615118 3.582628 5.408358 9.544678 23.115602 338.368618
2025-04-27 1.986710 2.629909 3.652773 5.643631 10.422302 28.509853 23108.162257
2025-05-04 1.961563 2.616142 3.673122 5.781776 11.090898 33.977991 NaN
2025-05-11 1.903751 2.547657 3.594650 5.707263 11.147718 36.196484 NaN
2025-05-18 1.853439 2.489123 3.530299 5.656572 11.266536 39.087255 NaN
2025-05-25 1.804199 2.430378 3.462449 5.592263 11.333184 41.837665 NaN
2025-06-01 1.758249 2.375268 3.398283 5.530473 11.397671 44.829882 NaN
2025-06-08 1.722204 2.334969 3.358558 5.519077 11.625188 49.920627 NaN
2025-06-15 1.703593 2.322457 3.368155 5.618996 12.255980 61.449683 NaN